Burford Capital is the largest Litigation Finance company on Earth. Returns on litigation investments are consistently high, yet investment pros can’t seem to agree whether Burford stock is a big risk or a sure thing. The truth, as always, may be somewhere in between.
Seeking Alpha reports that Andrew Walker of Rangeley Capital interviewed Artem Fokin (AF) of Caro-Kann, a small-cap focused investment firm. The pair discussed the idea that Burford shares are worth much more than current share prices indicate.
Below are some key takeaways from their interview:
Does Burford bring more than just money to the table?
AF: That’s an excellent question. The qualification, when you look at the Litigation Finance space, two types of investment professionals tend to work there—either people coming from a law background, or finance background. Obviously, both have advantages and disadvantages. A good litigator who comes from a top law firm may not necessarily view the world through an investment lens. So they’ll need to make that transition. Similarly, finance people will know all about finances, but they know nothing about law. You need to have a team that combines both.
Burford cannot tell a client to settle or not settle, appeal or not appeal. That’s not allowed because Burford is not a client. The law firm owes the duty to the plaintiff; they are the client. But funders, through the funding agreement, can encourage certain types of behavior.
Are returns to litigation funding sustainable?
AF: Burford isn’t the only funder raising very attractive returns. There are other very skilled litigation finance players who generate returns that are very comparable. We’re not talking about a phenomenon where there’s one player that’s very big and they’re generating returns like nobody else can—and then eventually people will come after them.
The entire industry is doing well, as long as they have skill. Skillful players do well in general. Sure, there is more capital coming in, but at the same time, the penetration and use of litigation finance is expanding. It’s difficult to quantify. But the capital coming in is absorbed.
Litigation funding is expanding the total addressable market. What nobody can calculate with any degree of precision, is that some cases that would have never been brought to court are being pursued now because there are litigation finance providers who are willing to finance it. Consider what would happen with innovation in all tech companies if there were no venture capitalists who were willing to invest.
How do you value Burford?
AF: Earnings from any period may or may not be meaningful. If you have a big settlement or victory, you can get a big payout. Alternatively, it can be very slow with no cases either settled or adjudicated.
If you look historically, the IRR has been around 24%. If you look at Burford's numbers, they report high IRR, around 30. But that includes a case in Argentina where they already made some money.
The future rate should grow over time to the mid-teens. After that, you get to a normalized net income. That’s how I’m getting to 70-75 cents or so, EPS.
What about Burford's Value Component #2: Asset Management?
AF: Burford manages several hedge funds, some of which have already been fully deployed. Some of those pools of capital are being invested as we speak. There’s a variety of assets.
There is this way to calculate, called ‘European Waterfall.' What it means is that until the initial capital has not been returned to limited partners, the litigation funder doesn’t recognize the incentive fee on its booking records. It means if you took $100 million and invested into ten matters, and the first matter comes out, and it’s a home run (I’m using an extreme example) you just made $100 million of profit. You as a litigation finance provider, using European Waterfall structure, will not recognize any incentive fees. You’ll only start recognizing fees when your second matter is resolved.
But that first big win, even though it’s amazing...you recognize zero. And right now, Burford has recognized very few incentive fees from most of the funds. As those funds get more and more into harvest mode, those incentives will be disproportionate.