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Value in Litigation & Implications for Litigation Finance

Value in Litigation & Implications for Litigation Finance

The following article is part of an ongoing column titled ‘Investor Insights.’  Brought to you by Ed Truant, founder and content manager of Slingshot Capital, ‘Investor Insights’ will provide thoughtful and engaging perspectives on all aspects of investing in litigation finance.  Executive Summary
  • 3 Phases of Risk:
    • De-Risking
    • Optimum Resolution
    • Re-Risking
  • Optimum risk-adjusted zone is when information is maximized and trial has yet to begin
  • Once a trial begins, outcomes become binary in the absence of a settlement
  • Diversification is critical to investing in the litigation finance sector
Investor Insights
  • In assessing portfolio performance, it’s crucial to determine the extent of trial outcomes
  • Assess settlement performance in the context of industry settlement rates
  • Generally, a high percentage of cases are settled
  • Certain case types have lower settlement rates, so there is not a ‘one size fits all’ approach to analyzing portfolio performance
I was speaking recently with a local litigation finance manager about the value of a piece of litigation in the context of litigation finance.  As I thought more about the discussion and the implications for settlements and maximizing outcomes, I felt compelled to relay the thoughts in an article for other industry participants to consider and argue.  Keep in mind that this is a simplistic view of a piece of litigation, as most litigation has layers of complexity that influence valuation, not to mention precedents in other jurisdictions. Value The intrinsic value of a piece of litigation is made up of a number of components that lawyers, plaintiffs and litigation finance managers assess as they underwrite their investment decision, which typically consist of the following:
merits of the casedefense counsel effectiveness
collectability of damagesdefendant’s conduct re: previous litigation
quantum of damagesplaintiff counsel effectiveness
justice considerations (judiciary and jurisdiction)
For the purposes of this article, we will mainly reference early stage, pre-settlement cases. Editor’s note– the following contribution appears with illustrative graphs and charts here.   Value is not a static concept in litigation.  Nevertheless, litigation fund managers have to determine approximate value; or a value range at the very early stages of a case when there is a relatively high degree of uncertainty, relatively few facts and little to nothing in terms of judicial proceedings.  In the context of litigation, value varies with time (while time may add value in the short term by virtue of contributing to the amount of information that can be gathered on the case, the longer a case drags on past the point where maximum information is available, the less valuable time becomes due to the time value of money). Value also varies proportionately – or perhaps disproportionately – with risk, which is in turn influenced by information. That is to say, unknown data may come to light that becomes beneficial or harmful to the merits of your case and may influence its outcome and/or quantum. As an example, the ‘certification’ process of a class action in certain jurisdictions has a meaningful impact on whether the class proceeds with the action, and ultimately is a strong determinant of success, typically through settlement. Of course, in all jurisdictions, another major contributing factor is access to capital so plaintiffs can finance the pursuit of their meritorious claims to the point of collection of damages – enter litigation finance. We will assume for the remainder of this article that all cases have the appropriate amount of financing. As discussed, the value of a case is determined by two factors: risk and time.  All cases start where risk is at a maximum, as there is relatively little information known about the case and hence a great degree of uncertainty about its outcome. As plaintiff and counsel build their case and proceed through discovery, the case generally becomes ‘de-risked’ as the plaintiff team grows more comfortable about the merits of their case and the quantum of damages. As we move through the case, we enter the zone of ‘optimum resolution’. However, ‘optimum resolution’ is not necessarily a value maximizing concept, but rather a concept of risk-adjusted value maximization.  The risk-adjusted aspect stems from the fact that both sides have about equal information concerning the dispute, and are now able to make a rational decision as to the possible outcomes and damage quantification. At the point where the process moves past the Optimum Resolution phase, the parties enter into a new phase of risk which is reflective of the binary risk nature of litigation, whereby the outcome is determined by a third party judiciary. As the plaintiff gathers more information regarding his or her case, the case generally increases in value as risk diminishes.  However, at the point where a judicial process commences (and assuming a settlement doesn’t occur between the start of the process and the decision), the investment bifurcates into two potential outcomes on the assumption that there is no resolution after the start of the trial – generally, either a win or a loss outcome.  In certain jurisdictions where they have “adverse costs” or “loser pays” rules, the plaintiff will have to pay the defense costs, and so there is a real financial cost in addition to the lost opportunity associated with a positive outcome.  Implications The purpose of this analysis is to focus the plaintiff on the fact that on a risk-adjusted basis, the zone of Optimum Resolution is the most advantageous point in the litigation process to resolve the case, as it reflects the point of most knowledge and least risk.  This is the point in time to cast aside all emotional elements of the case and the impact of damages incurred, and focus on a realistic outcome that can be achieved through negotiation and settlement, regardless of whether it makes the plaintiff “whole” or not.  Of course, as the old saying goes, “it takes two to tango”, and so, if the defense is not of the same opinion, or their analysis is skewed, they may have a very different perspective on the appropriate settlement amount.  In the case of insurance companies as defendants in cases, they may have other considerations such as statutory reserve requirements or corporate strategic reasons to delay as long as possible (time value of money and the impact on their insurance reserves and investment returns).  Nevertheless, the concept applies to both defense and plaintiff, which is the reason for high settlement rates in most litigation in all jurisdictions. From an investor’s perspective, there should be a recognition that as each case in their portfolio extends beyond the zone of Optimum Resolution, the risk to their portfolio increases.  Accordingly, if you are an institutional investor buying a secondary pool of litigation finance assets, you want to be sure you are not buying a series of old cases where the binary risk is high and you are not getting an appropriate discount to assume the risk.  Of course, there are always exceptions to this rule.  The reason a case has extended for a long period of time may be because the plaintiff has had successive wins at various levels of judiciary and the risk has started to shift away from binary litigation risk toward collection and enforcement risk (Burford’s investment in the ‘Petersen claim’ is a prime example of this phenomenon). Needless to say, litigation is not a formulaic science, and because of the large degree of human interaction and case complexity, it will be relegated into the “arts” category for the time being.  Perhaps artificial intelligence can add a scientific element to determining value and litigation outcomes, but until the vast knowledge of settlement data becomes publicly available, the industry will depend on ‘gut instinct’ and litigation experience in making its decisions.  From an investment perspective, the important point is that diversification is critical to capture the upside inherent in the asset class, while minimizing the downside inherent in the inevitable losses that will be experienced. Important Considerations  Other important factors to consider are the use of contingent fee arrangements and litigation finance, and the impact those characteristics have on the ultimate value of a piece of litigation.  Some in the litigation finance community will argue that they will only consider providing financing to cases where the lawyer is providing their services on a 100% contingent basis (there could be jurisdiction specific constraints to the use of contingent fee arrangements), as this fosters alignment between plaintiff and lawyer to maximize the value of the claim.  Certainly, the alignment argument makes intuitive sense.  However, not every funder is convinced of this fact, and unfortunately, there is not a broad set of data that is definitive in this regard.  Accordingly, until the data determines there is a strong correlation between contingent fee arrangements and outcomes, it remains to be seen.  On one of the panels at the September 2019 LF Dealmakers conference, a litigation funder stated that the company’s empirical data suggests there is no correlation, and hence contingency fee arrangements are not a significant feature to their underwriting process. Yet it’s worth pointing out that many funders feel strongly that the alignment argument is a good one, so they refuse to invest in a case without at least some level of legal counsel fee contingency. Then there is the existence and use of litigation funding itself.  One could argue that the very existence of a plaintiff’s use of a litigation funder to pursue its case will shift the balance of power and ‘level the playing field’ between the plaintiff and the defendant, especially in a David v. Goliath situation where the defendant is ‘deep pocketed’ and the plaintiff relatively impecunious.  As an investor in the industry, not only do I subscribe to the theory, I have seen the results.  While many would suggest it is difficult to parse the effect of litigation funding from the effect of good legal representation and a meritorious claim, I look at the results of relatively small financings and I can see a correlation between success and short duration, which I, in large part, ascribe to the existence of litigation finance. Investor Insights: As a consequence of the above, when I review track records for fund managers one of the metrics I look at is how often the realized outcomes are dependent on a judicial decision (bench, trial or arbitral) as compared to an outcome determined through settlement.  Overall, the data concerning litigation outcomes illustrates that a high percentage of cases (90%+) are settled prior to a judicial decision and so we need to view the results in the context of industry settlement rates. Generally speaking, and depending on the case type and jurisdiction, I have a strong preference for fund managers that have a disproportionate number of settlements in their realized portfolios as opposed to outcomes that were derived from a judicial decision, given the binary nature of those outcomes.  In certain jurisdictions, litigation funders are able to have some influence on the settlement discussions which may tend to favour higher settlement rates, so this issue and my approach to it is not identical in every jurisdiction.  Another influencing factor on settlement rates is case types and case sizes.  Generally speaking, I have noticed that outcomes dependent on judicial/arbitral decisions are correlated with larger cases and certain case types (as an example, International Arbitration cases would be one area where settlement is less likely and hence arbitral outcomes more prevalent). Edward Truant is the founder of Slingshot Capital Inc., and an investor in the consumer and commercial litigation finance industry.
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Harris Pogust Joins Bryant Park Capital as Senior Advisor

By John Freund |

Bryant Park Capital (“BPC”) a leading middle market investment bank and market leader in the litigation finance sector, is pleased to announce that Harris Pogust has joined the firm as a Senior Advisor.  Harris (Mr. Pogust) is one of the best known and prominent attorneys in the mass tort and class action fields, he was the founding partner and Chairman of Pogust Goodhead worldwide until early 2024 and is currently working with Trial Lawyers for a Better Tomorrow, a charity Harris founded, to help children reach their educational potential all over the world.  Harris’ life work has been to deliver justice for those who have been damaged or injured through the negligence or bad faith of others.

“We are thrilled to have Harris as part of our team.  His knowledge, experience and relationships in the litigation finance sector are of great value to Bryant Park and our clients.  As the litigation finance world becomes more competitive, complex and challenging, having an expert like Harris on our team is invaluable,” said Joel Magerman, Managing Partner of Bryant Park.

Harris’ efforts, in conjunction with Bryant Park will focus on assisting law firms and funders in developing strategies to more efficiently fund their operations and cases and assist them in establishing the right relationships for future growth.  Harris commented, “I have been fortunate to have been a practicing attorney and partner in law firms for over 35 years focused on building and growing a worldwide book of business in the class action/mass tort field.  That required significant capital and throughout my career I have raised over $1 billion for my firms.  I have learned what works and what doesn’t.  I have seen both the risks and rewards in this industry.  I look forward to being able to work with law firms and funders to assist them in putting the right strategies in place with Bryant Park and bringing capital and liquidity to help them grow and flourish.”

About Bryant Park Capital

Bryant Park Capital is an investment bank providing capital raising, M&A and corporate finance advisory services to emerging growth and middle market public and private companies. BPC has deep expertise and a diversified, well-founded breadth of experience in a number of sectors, including specialty finance & financial services. BPC has raised various forms of credit, growth equity, and assisted in mergers and acquisitions for its clients. Our professionals have completed more than 400 assignments representing an aggregate transaction value of over $30 billion.

For more information about Bryant Park Capital, please visit www.bryantparkcapital.com.

20 Legal Firms and Groups Calling on UK Government for Urgent Legislation to Reverse PACCAR

Despite a government-commissioned independent review recommending priority standalone legislation to reverse PACCAR, the Government has failed to act, the letter to the Lord Chancellor says.

“As a highly respected member of the legal community, the Prime Minister rightly often speaks of ‘following the evidence’.

“The independent experts have provided the evidence that this issue needs fixing, yet this Government refuses to act, delaying justice for some and denying justice for future claimants.

“We call on the Government to act swiftly and legislate for the sake of claimants and the reputation of the UK’s justice system.”

The letter follows earlier calls on the Government from claimants to reverse PACCAR urgently, including from Sir Alan Bates , truck hauliers and the lead claimant in a mass action case against six water suppliers for alleged customer overcharging.

This comes amid a drop off in collective proceeding cases in the Competition Appeal Tribunal this year according to Solomonic, as reported in the Financial Times this morning (link). 

Neil Purslow, Chairman of the Executive Committee of ILFA, said:

“We’ve been warning successive governments for more than two years about the potential impact this uncertainty will have on consumers and small businesses’ ability to access justice.

“These figures show that stark reality. Meritorious claims are going unfunded, alleged wrongdoers are unchallenged and competition - one of the great drivers of growth - is not being enforced.

“The Government must act before this small trickle of cases dries up altogether.”

Martyn Day, co-founder of Leigh Day and co-president of the Collective Redress Lawyers Association (CORLA) which signed the letter, said: 

“This issue has created a great deal of uncertainty that is blocking access to justice for ordinary people taking on powerful corporations accused of wrongdoing. 

“The system simply cannot work without litigation funding, and this is a timely reminder to government to fix this issue, and urgently.”

In July 2023, the Supreme Court ruled in the PACCAR judgment that litigation finance agreements were unenforceable unless they met the requirements of Damages-Based Agreements, rendering many ongoing cases invalid and causing delays in the pursuit of justice for millions of claimants. 

The Civil Justice Council (CJC) concluded its comprehensive review of the funding sector four months ago, after the Government had promised to review what legislation might be needed to address PACCAR once the review was complete. The CJC’s review urged priority standalone legislation to reverse the damaging effects of PACCAR. Yet, despite earlier promises, the Government has said the review would merely “help to inform the approach to potential reforms” in “due course”. 

The letter highlights how the Government’s continued inaction contradicts the Prime Minister's own commitment to "following the evidence”.

The signatories, representing firms including Mishcon de Reya, Stewarts, Freeths, and Scott+Scott UK, highlight the “pivotal role” of group actions. They call on the Government to “act swiftly” to adopt the CJC’s recommendation to reverse PACCAR to protect the reputation of the UK’s justice system. The firms also include those who have provided legal representation for Sir Alan Bates, hauliers ripped off by truck manufacturers (link), and leaseholders fighting secret insurance charges (link).

Since the ruling, crucial investment into the UK economy is rapidly being lost. Litigation funders like Burford Capital are taking their funds elsewhere, with CEO Chris Bogart, stating his firm has begun ‘migrating some dispute resolution away from London’, following PACCAR. 

Litigation funding enables claimants with limited means to access justice, enabling landmark cases including those brought by the subpostmasters, retail workers, and small business owners, to hold multinational corporations accused of serious wrongdoing to account, while promoting fair, competitive markets and securing investment into the UK.

--

Below is the letter to the Lord Chancellor, in its entirety:

Rt Hon David Lammy MP
Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice
Ministry of Justice
102 Petty France
London
SW1H 9AJ

Dear Lord Chancellor,

Congratulations on your new role as Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary. While we recognise the many challenges you'll face stepping into this role, we wanted to highlight a critical issue that is undermining access to justice and stifling investment in the UK's legal system. But it's an issue with a quick and simple fix.

Group actions in the UK play a pivotal role in enabling individuals to come together to bring claims against those accused of wrongdoing - often multinational corporations with significant resources. It has helped claimants like the subpostmasters, shopworkers, retail investors, and small business owners access justice.

The regime is underpinned by claimants’ abilities to access finance - often through litigation funding where funders provide financial backing for an agreed return of any settlement. However, as you know, the future of this mechanism and the regime is under threat thanks to the disruptive effects of the 2023 PACCAR judgment, and subsequent challenges to the enforceability of funding arrangements.

Claimants with limited means are struggling to access funding to bring their cases, and investment from funders is draining away from the UK legal system.

The Government promised to review what legislation might be needed to address PACCAR once the Civil Justice Council’s review had concluded. 

The CJC reported back 4 months ago with a thorough and nuanced perspective on the funding sector. As members of the legal community, we are sympathetic to sensible reforms and are reassured that the Government is considering these carefully. 

But one unequivocal and pressing recommendation from the CJC was for urgent standalone legislation to reverse the effects of PACCAR to end the uncertainty damaging access to justice. Disappointingly, the Government has so far failed to hear that call, saying only that the review would “help to inform the approach to potential reforms” in “due course”, despite its previous promises.

As a highly respected member of the legal community, the Prime Minister rightly often speaks of “following the evidence”. The independent experts have provided the evidence that this issue needs fixing, yet this Government refuses to act, delaying justice for some and denying justice for future claimants. 

We call on the Government to act swiftly and legislate for the sake of claimants and the reputation of the UK’s justice system.

Signed

The Collective Redress Lawyers Association (CORLA).
Stewarts
Group Actions & Competition, Stephenson Harwood
Scott+Scott UK LLP
Backhouse Jones
Freeths 
Humphries Kerstetter LLP
Mishcon de Reya LLP
Velitor Law
Milberg London LLP
Fladgate LLP
Geradin Partners
Harcus Parker
Tim Constable, Bates Wells
Phi Finney McDonald
Keidan Harrison LLP
Asserson
Leigh Day
Cooke, Young & Keidan LLP
KP Law

Shai Silverman Departs CAC Specialty, Joins Litica as U.S. Head of Underwriting

By John Freund |

After four years helping to build CAC Specialty’s contingent risk insurance practice from the ground up, Shai Silverman is departing the firm to join litigation risk insurer Litica as its Head of Underwriting – U.S.

In a LinkedIn post, Silverman reflected on his time at CAC, where he joined in the early days of the firm’s efforts to turn contingent risk insurance into a mainstream product. Alongside colleagues Andrew Mutter, Michael B. Wakefield, and David Barnes, Silverman helped develop insurance solutions for a wide array of legal risks, crafted bespoke products for hundreds of clients, and played a key role in launching the first-ever contingent risk insurance conference.

Silverman now moves to Litica, a UK-headquartered specialist insurer focused on litigation and contingent risks, to lead its U.S. underwriting function. His move signals not just a personal transition but also the growing transatlantic ambitions of insurers operating in this once-niche corner of legal risk.

Silverman’s departure marks a broader inflection point for contingent risk insurance—a sector now poised for significant expansion. As underwriting talent like Silverman shifts into leadership roles at specialist firms, questions emerge around how traditional insurers will respond, and whether contingent risk insurance will continue its trajectory toward becoming a standard risk-transfer tool for litigation and arbitration.