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Covid-19 and Defendant Collectability Risk

April 15, 2020

Covid-19 and Defendant Collectability Risk

The following article is part of an ongoing column titled ‘Investor Insights.’  Brought to you by Ed Truant, founder and content manager of Slingshot Capital, ‘Investor Insights’ will provide thoughtful and engaging perspectives on all aspects of investing in litigation finance.  EXECUTIVE SUMARY
  • Covid-19 will likely lead to the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression
  • The crisis has affected the solvency and viability of corporations and sovereigns
  • Litigation managers need to re-assess collectability risk, immediately and regularly, of each defendant in their portfolio
INVESTOR INSIGHTS
  • Diligencing litigation managers should involve a deep understanding of how they assess defendant collectability risk
  • Defendant collectability risk is an ongoing risk that changes over time, therefore managers need a continuous risk assessment methodology
  • Investors looking to invest in litigation finance secondaries to take advantage of the current dislocation should avoid single case risk and look to portfolio acquisitions, but must assess collectability risk across the portfolio being acquired
As Covid-19 has taken the planet and the legal community by surprise, I think there are some lessons learned from private equity that can be applied to litigation finance.  In short, focus on cash – its collection, generation, distribution and availability. So, how does this relate to Litigation Finance? This novel Coronavirus-driven healthcare crisis which has spiralled into a broad-based economic crisis, the likes of which the modern global economy hasn’t seen since the Great Depression, has had the effect of taking otherwise viable, profitable and cashflow positive businesses and stopping them in their tracks.  Overnight, certain businesses and industries have performed a complete one-eighty, whereby they went from solvent to being on the precipice of insolvency.  For many litigation finance firms, their immediate reaction has and should be to undertake an immediate and urgent review of the defendants involved in each and every case in which their portfolios have an investment, in order to re-assess collectability risk, one of the key areas of litigation finance underwriting. When an economy, especially a consumer driven economy like the US, effectively shuts down overnight, there are few industries and companies that will be spared from a diminution in their value and blockage from access to capital.  Former “recession-resistant” and “necessity” businesses have just experienced a new reality, which is that necessity is determined by context.  The current context states that the only necessity is feeding, hand washing, shelter and healthcare, and this has had a massive impact on the economy. While this too shall pass, the economic impacts will likely linger for a number of months and years.  The hope for a “V” shaped recovery has been dashed, as the crisis has extended beyond initial duration estimates.  My personal opinion is that it will at best look like a “U” shaped recovery with the possibility of a double “W”, meaning there will likely be some ups and downs along the way, should the dreaded “C-19” rear its ugly head again going into the next flu season, or should it fail to be contained due to premature ‘return to daily activity’ policy.  My hope is that the massive amounts of stimulus that are being pumped into the global economy actually make their way to the most hard-hit regions of the economy, namely ‘Mainstreet’, and thereby mitigate the damage that would otherwise be experienced for many small and medium-sized businesses on which most economies rely. While we tend to focus on home first, litigation funders should also be mindful that the economy is global.  As bad as developed countries think they may have it, fund managers who participate in the international arbitration market, which by definition, involve developing countries and corporations therein, need to be mindful that those defendants in developing countries will likely be even more greatly affected. Yes, even sovereigns. Those managers that are focused on patent litigation involving start-up technology companies should also ensure the plaintiff is solvent through the end of the litigation, not to mention the collectability risk of the defendant, which may have been negatively impacted. All of this is to say, that it is in the best interests of litigation finance managers to undertake a re-assessment of collectability risk of each and every defendant in their portfolio, and to do so on a regular basis for the foreseeable future.  Managers will need to assess (i) the degree to which the defendant’s industry has been impacted, (ii) the strength of each defendant’s business and balance sheet, (iii) the ability for the defendant (business or sovereign) to access sufficient capital to maintain solvency, (iv) the degree to which the value of such business has declined, (v) a study of the defendants’ behaviour during the last economic crisis, as it relates to litigation ongoing at that time, if any, (vi) determine the extent to which other parties have security and seniority ahead of the plaintiff’s claims and (vii) assess the defendants’ ability to raise capital outside of financing (i.e. asset sales, equity raises, etc.). Once a determination has been made as to the relative collectability risk, managers will then need to determine next steps with respect to protecting themselves from those cases where the defendant collectability risk has materially changed.  This may involve the withdrawal of any further financing provisions (to the extent the financing was milestone-based), partnering with other parties to share the increased risk of the case, or selling all or a portion of a case or a portfolio (although the manager would be selling into a weak secondary market with relatively few participants, which will be reflected in the valuation, if they can secure bids).  While the options may not be great, they may be better than investing ‘good money after bad’. Investor Insights For investors that are invested in the sector or considering making an investment in the litigation finance market, now is a good time to diligence how and the extent to which managers were on top of their portfolio in assessing collectability risk.  For those investors interested in secondary market opportunities, caveat emptor.  The risk profile for a single case secondary is much higher given the high level of uncertainty in today’s market so a portfolio of secondaries may be a better risk-adjusted avenue to pursue but the portfolio’s diversification benefits would not negate the need to reassess the collectability risk of each defendant in the portfolio.  Edward Truant is the founder of Slingshot Capital Inc., and an investor in the consumer and commercial litigation finance industry.

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Commercial

WinJustice Sees MENA Litigation Funding Go Mainstream by 2026

By John Freund |

Litigation funding in the Middle East and North Africa is expected to move decisively into the mainstream by 2026, as regulatory clarity, arbitration reform, and growing commercial awareness reshape how disputes are financed across the region. What was once viewed as a niche or unfamiliar concept is increasingly being recognized as a practical tool for managing risk, unlocking claims value, and improving access to justice in complex commercial matters.

An article in WinJustice Knowledge Hub outlines how litigation funding is evolving into a recognized asset class within the MENA legal ecosystem. The piece highlights how improved regulatory environments and more sophisticated arbitration frameworks are helping normalize third-party funding, particularly in international arbitration and cross-border disputes. Claims are increasingly assessed not simply as legal battles, but as financial assets that can be monetized and strategically managed. This shift is especially relevant for businesses facing capital constraints or seeking to preserve cash while pursuing high-value disputes.

The article also emphasizes the role of localized expertise in accelerating adoption. WinJustice positions itself as a regional player focused on aligning international funding practices with local legal cultures, court systems, and arbitration centers. By working closely with regional law firms and dispute resolution institutions, funders are helping bridge the gap between global capital and local claimants. Insolvency-related disputes and asset recovery cases are identified as particular areas of growth, reflecting broader economic and restructuring trends across the region.

As litigation funding becomes more familiar to courts, counsel, and corporate clients, the MENA market appears poised for accelerated growth. Increased competition among funders and greater sophistication among claimants may also lead to more standardized pricing and structures.

Commercial

Legal Firm Pogust Goodhead Flags Financial Uncertainty

By John Freund |

Pogust Goodhead, the high-profile claimant law firm behind a number of major group actions, has warned of material uncertainty over its ability to continue as a going concern after publishing long-overdue financial accounts. The disclosure adds another layer of scrutiny to a firm that has been at the centre of some of the largest and most complex funded claims currently working their way through the courts.

An article in City A.M. reports that Pogust Goodhead filed its accounts for the year ending December 31, 2022 well past the statutory deadline, with the documents including a statement from directors acknowledging significant financial uncertainty. According to the filing, the firm remains dependent on securing additional funding and successfully progressing large-scale litigation in order to meet its obligations as they fall due.

The accounts show that Pogust Goodhead continues to operate at a loss, reflecting the capital-intensive nature of large group actions that can take years to reach resolution. The firm has been involved in headline cases, including environmental and consumer claims, where substantial upfront legal costs are incurred long before any recovery is realised. Directors noted that delays, adverse rulings, or difficulties in accessing external capital could materially affect the firm’s financial position.

Despite these warnings, the firm stated that it is actively engaged with funders and other stakeholders and believes there is a reasonable prospect of obtaining sufficient support to continue operations. The accounts were prepared on a going concern basis, although auditors highlighted the uncertainty as a key area of emphasis rather than issuing a qualification.

The disclosure comes at a time when claimant firms and their funders are facing heightened scrutiny from regulators, politicians, and critics of litigation finance. Financial transparency, funding arrangements, and risk allocation between law firms and third-party capital providers are increasingly under the spotlight, particularly in the context of large, cross-border group actions.

Commercial Regulatory Issues

New Litigation Finance Trade Group Aims to Counter Hill Attacks

By John Freund |

A new trade association has launched with the goal of giving the litigation finance industry a stronger and more coordinated voice in Washington as lawmakers renew scrutiny of third-party funding. The American Civil Accountability Alliance has been formed to push back against what its founders describe as growing political and legislative hostility toward litigation finance, particularly on Capitol Hill.

An article in Bloomberg Law reports that the alliance was announced in early January by lawyers Erick Robinson and Charles Silver, who say the organization will focus on educating lawmakers and policymakers about the role litigation funding plays in promoting access to justice. According to the founders, third-party capital allows plaintiffs to pursue complex and costly claims that would otherwise be financially out of reach, helping to balance disparities between individual or corporate claimants and well-resourced defendants.

The group is launching at a time when litigation finance has faced an uptick in proposed regulation. In 2024, Senate legislation nearly imposed a steep tax on litigation funding profits, a proposal that funders warned would have severely damaged the industry had it passed. Although that measure was ultimately removed from a broader legislative package, additional proposals continue to circulate in Congress, including bills aimed at mandating disclosure of funding arrangements and restricting foreign investment in U.S. litigation.

The American Civil Accountability Alliance plans to position itself as an active counterweight to these efforts. The organization intends to hire a Washington-based lobbyist and expand its membership beyond funders to include law firms, litigators, and other stakeholders involved in the civil justice system. In doing so, it joins the International Legal Finance Association as one of the few organized advocacy groups representing the industry’s interests at the federal level.