Covid-19 and Defendant Collectability Risk

Covid-19 and Defendant Collectability Risk

The following article is part of an ongoing column titled ‘Investor Insights.’  Brought to you by Ed Truant, founder and content manager of Slingshot Capital, ‘Investor Insights’ will provide thoughtful and engaging perspectives on all aspects of investing in litigation finance.  EXECUTIVE SUMARY
  • Covid-19 will likely lead to the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression
  • The crisis has affected the solvency and viability of corporations and sovereigns
  • Litigation managers need to re-assess collectability risk, immediately and regularly, of each defendant in their portfolio
INVESTOR INSIGHTS
  • Diligencing litigation managers should involve a deep understanding of how they assess defendant collectability risk
  • Defendant collectability risk is an ongoing risk that changes over time, therefore managers need a continuous risk assessment methodology
  • Investors looking to invest in litigation finance secondaries to take advantage of the current dislocation should avoid single case risk and look to portfolio acquisitions, but must assess collectability risk across the portfolio being acquired
As Covid-19 has taken the planet and the legal community by surprise, I think there are some lessons learned from private equity that can be applied to litigation finance.  In short, focus on cash – its collection, generation, distribution and availability. So, how does this relate to Litigation Finance? This novel Coronavirus-driven healthcare crisis which has spiralled into a broad-based economic crisis, the likes of which the modern global economy hasn’t seen since the Great Depression, has had the effect of taking otherwise viable, profitable and cashflow positive businesses and stopping them in their tracks.  Overnight, certain businesses and industries have performed a complete one-eighty, whereby they went from solvent to being on the precipice of insolvency.  For many litigation finance firms, their immediate reaction has and should be to undertake an immediate and urgent review of the defendants involved in each and every case in which their portfolios have an investment, in order to re-assess collectability risk, one of the key areas of litigation finance underwriting. When an economy, especially a consumer driven economy like the US, effectively shuts down overnight, there are few industries and companies that will be spared from a diminution in their value and blockage from access to capital.  Former “recession-resistant” and “necessity” businesses have just experienced a new reality, which is that necessity is determined by context.  The current context states that the only necessity is feeding, hand washing, shelter and healthcare, and this has had a massive impact on the economy. While this too shall pass, the economic impacts will likely linger for a number of months and years.  The hope for a “V” shaped recovery has been dashed, as the crisis has extended beyond initial duration estimates.  My personal opinion is that it will at best look like a “U” shaped recovery with the possibility of a double “W”, meaning there will likely be some ups and downs along the way, should the dreaded “C-19” rear its ugly head again going into the next flu season, or should it fail to be contained due to premature ‘return to daily activity’ policy.  My hope is that the massive amounts of stimulus that are being pumped into the global economy actually make their way to the most hard-hit regions of the economy, namely ‘Mainstreet’, and thereby mitigate the damage that would otherwise be experienced for many small and medium-sized businesses on which most economies rely. While we tend to focus on home first, litigation funders should also be mindful that the economy is global.  As bad as developed countries think they may have it, fund managers who participate in the international arbitration market, which by definition, involve developing countries and corporations therein, need to be mindful that those defendants in developing countries will likely be even more greatly affected. Yes, even sovereigns. Those managers that are focused on patent litigation involving start-up technology companies should also ensure the plaintiff is solvent through the end of the litigation, not to mention the collectability risk of the defendant, which may have been negatively impacted. All of this is to say, that it is in the best interests of litigation finance managers to undertake a re-assessment of collectability risk of each and every defendant in their portfolio, and to do so on a regular basis for the foreseeable future.  Managers will need to assess (i) the degree to which the defendant’s industry has been impacted, (ii) the strength of each defendant’s business and balance sheet, (iii) the ability for the defendant (business or sovereign) to access sufficient capital to maintain solvency, (iv) the degree to which the value of such business has declined, (v) a study of the defendants’ behaviour during the last economic crisis, as it relates to litigation ongoing at that time, if any, (vi) determine the extent to which other parties have security and seniority ahead of the plaintiff’s claims and (vii) assess the defendants’ ability to raise capital outside of financing (i.e. asset sales, equity raises, etc.). Once a determination has been made as to the relative collectability risk, managers will then need to determine next steps with respect to protecting themselves from those cases where the defendant collectability risk has materially changed.  This may involve the withdrawal of any further financing provisions (to the extent the financing was milestone-based), partnering with other parties to share the increased risk of the case, or selling all or a portion of a case or a portfolio (although the manager would be selling into a weak secondary market with relatively few participants, which will be reflected in the valuation, if they can secure bids).  While the options may not be great, they may be better than investing ‘good money after bad’. Investor Insights For investors that are invested in the sector or considering making an investment in the litigation finance market, now is a good time to diligence how and the extent to which managers were on top of their portfolio in assessing collectability risk.  For those investors interested in secondary market opportunities, caveat emptor.  The risk profile for a single case secondary is much higher given the high level of uncertainty in today’s market so a portfolio of secondaries may be a better risk-adjusted avenue to pursue but the portfolio’s diversification benefits would not negate the need to reassess the collectability risk of each defendant in the portfolio.  Edward Truant is the founder of Slingshot Capital Inc., and an investor in the consumer and commercial litigation finance industry.
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By John Freund |

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An article in PR Newswire notes the year also brought 52 new investments totaling A$517 million in commitments and A$525.9 million added to fair value. Crucially, Omni executed its Fund 9 transaction with Ares—fully deleveraging and “significantly derisking” the balance sheet—while also validating its model with third-party institutional capital. CEO Raymond van Hulst called FY25 “a positive year with excellent investment returns and a transformative transaction,” adding that the platform is well placed for continued growth.

For a sector navigating evolving regulation and disclosure debates, the numbers matter—but so does capital formation. Omni’s ability to recycle capital, expand AUM and originate across jurisdictions reinforces the durability of legal assets as an alternative class.

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By John Freund |

Apex Litigation Finance has strengthened its leadership team with the appointment of Gabriel Olearnik, a highly experienced litigation funding professional with a global track record in high-value dispute resolution and complex commercial matters.

Over the past five years, Gabriel has originated and reviewed more than 451 litigation funding cases worldwide with an aggregate value exceeding $116 billion, closing deals worth over $700 million. His recent work includes the successful settlement of a high-profile BIT matter as well as executive employment claims in the UK.

Gabriel’s career spans senior roles in UK, US and European litigation funders, where he was instrumental in structuring high-value transactions, securing strategic court orders and conducting multi-jurisdictional investigations. In 2023, he closed a £268 million litigation funding deal in just three weeks, underscoring his ability to deliver results under tight timelines.

Recognised by Lexology as one of only 66 lawyers worldwide to receive the Thought Leaders in Third Party Funding accolade, Gabriel has been involved in matters that have attracted daily media coverage and required innovative dispute strategies. His experience extends to training legal teams, advising on politically sensitive disputes, and executing complex enforcement actions.

“Gabriel brings exceptional global experience, deep sector knowledge, and a proven ability to deliver in high-stakes environments,” said Maurice Power, CEO of Apex Litigation Finance. “His appointment further enhances Apex’s market position and it’s ability to originate, evaluate and fund complex commercial claims for our clients.”

“I am delighted to join Maurice and the team at Apex,” said Gabriel. “Apex’s strong financial backing and their speed of execution make this a natural alignment. I look forward to building on the strong foundation set out by my predecessor, Stephen Allinson, and contributing to the future success of the business.”

Gabriel’s appointment reflects Apex’s ongoing growth in funding small to mid-sized UK commercial disputes and builds on the company’s commitment to delivering fast, fair, and competitive non-recourse litigation funding solutions to claimant’s who may be prohibited from pursuing meritorious cases due to cost and/or financial risk.

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