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Covid-19 and Defendant Collectability Risk

The following article is part of an ongoing column titled ‘Investor Insights.’ 

Brought to you by Ed Truant, founder and content manager of Slingshot Capital, ‘Investor Insights’ will provide thoughtful and engaging perspectives on all aspects of investing in litigation finance. 

EXECUTIVE SUMARY

  • Covid-19 will likely lead to the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression
  • The crisis has affected the solvency and viability of corporations and sovereigns
  • Litigation managers need to re-assess collectability risk, immediately and regularly, of each defendant in their portfolio

INVESTOR INSIGHTS

  • Diligencing litigation managers should involve a deep understanding of how they assess defendant collectability risk
  • Defendant collectability risk is an ongoing risk that changes over time, therefore managers need a continuous risk assessment methodology
  • Investors looking to invest in litigation finance secondaries to take advantage of the current dislocation should avoid single case risk and look to portfolio acquisitions, but must assess collectability risk across the portfolio being acquired

As Covid-19 has taken the planet and the legal community by surprise, I think there are some lessons learned from private equity that can be applied to litigation finance.  In short, focus on cash – its collection, generation, distribution and availability.

So, how does this relate to Litigation Finance?

This novel Coronavirus-driven healthcare crisis which has spiralled into a broad-based economic crisis, the likes of which the modern global economy hasn’t seen since the Great Depression, has had the effect of taking otherwise viable, profitable and cashflow positive businesses and stopping them in their tracks.  Overnight, certain businesses and industries have performed a complete one-eighty, whereby they went from solvent to being on the precipice of insolvency.  For many litigation finance firms, their immediate reaction has and should be to undertake an immediate and urgent review of the defendants involved in each and every case in which their portfolios have an investment, in order to re-assess collectability risk, one of the key areas of litigation finance underwriting.

When an economy, especially a consumer driven economy like the US, effectively shuts down overnight, there are few industries and companies that will be spared from a diminution in their value and blockage from access to capital.  Former “recession-resistant” and “necessity” businesses have just experienced a new reality, which is that necessity is determined by context.  The current context states that the only necessity is feeding, hand washing, shelter and healthcare, and this has had a massive impact on the economy. While this too shall pass, the economic impacts will likely linger for a number of months and years.  The hope for a “V” shaped recovery has been dashed, as the crisis has extended beyond initial duration estimates.  My personal opinion is that it will at best look like a “U” shaped recovery with the possibility of a double “W”, meaning there will likely be some ups and downs along the way, should the dreaded “C-19” rear its ugly head again going into the next flu season, or should it fail to be contained due to premature ‘return to daily activity’ policy.  My hope is that the massive amounts of stimulus that are being pumped into the global economy actually make their way to the most hard-hit regions of the economy, namely ‘Mainstreet’, and thereby mitigate the damage that would otherwise be experienced for many small and medium-sized businesses on which most economies rely.

While we tend to focus on home first, litigation funders should also be mindful that the economy is global.  As bad as developed countries think they may have it, fund managers who participate in the international arbitration market, which by definition, involve developing countries and corporations therein, need to be mindful that those defendants in developing countries will likely be even more greatly affected. Yes, even sovereigns.

Those managers that are focused on patent litigation involving start-up technology companies should also ensure the plaintiff is solvent through the end of the litigation, not to mention the collectability risk of the defendant, which may have been negatively impacted.

All of this is to say, that it is in the best interests of litigation finance managers to undertake a re-assessment of collectability risk of each and every defendant in their portfolio, and to do so on a regular basis for the foreseeable future.  Managers will need to assess (i) the degree to which the defendant’s industry has been impacted, (ii) the strength of each defendant’s business and balance sheet, (iii) the ability for the defendant (business or sovereign) to access sufficient capital to maintain solvency, (iv) the degree to which the value of such business has declined, (v) a study of the defendants’ behaviour during the last economic crisis, as it relates to litigation ongoing at that time, if any, (vi) determine the extent to which other parties have security and seniority ahead of the plaintiff’s claims and (vii) assess the defendants’ ability to raise capital outside of financing (i.e. asset sales, equity raises, etc.).

Once a determination has been made as to the relative collectability risk, managers will then need to determine next steps with respect to protecting themselves from those cases where the defendant collectability risk has materially changed.  This may involve the withdrawal of any further financing provisions (to the extent the financing was milestone-based), partnering with other parties to share the increased risk of the case, or selling all or a portion of a case or a portfolio (although the manager would be selling into a weak secondary market with relatively few participants, which will be reflected in the valuation, if they can secure bids).  While the options may not be great, they may be better than investing ‘good money after bad’.

Investor Insights

For investors that are invested in the sector or considering making an investment in the litigation finance market, now is a good time to diligence how and the extent to which managers were on top of their portfolio in assessing collectability risk.  For those investors interested in secondary market opportunities, caveat emptor.  The risk profile for a single case secondary is much higher given the high level of uncertainty in today’s market so a portfolio of secondaries may be a better risk-adjusted avenue to pursue but the portfolio’s diversification benefits would not negate the need to reassess the collectability risk of each defendant in the portfolio.

 Edward Truant is the founder of Slingshot Capital Inc., and an investor in the consumer and commercial litigation finance industry.

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Omni Bridgeway Maps Recovery Paths for PRC Creditors

By John Freund |

China’s ballooning stock of non-performing loans (NPLs) has long frustrated mainland banks and asset-management companies eager to claw back value from defaulted borrowers scattered across multiple jurisdictions. In its newly released 2025 Report on International Asset Recovery for PRC Financial Creditors, Omni Bridgeway distills the lessons of a growing body of cross-border enforcement actions and sets out a playbook for creditors determined to follow the money.

A paper published by Omni Bridgeway explains that the three-chapter study surveys today’s enforcement landscape, highlights “funded recovery” strategies for domestic institutions, and walks readers through case studies in which Chinese lenders have traced assets into offshore havens and employed Mareva-style injunctions, arbitral award assignments, and insolvency proceedings to compel payment.

The paper highlights how litigation finance can transform the economics of pursuing stubborn debtors. By underwriting investigative costs, securing local counsel, and bridging timing gaps between enforcement wins and cash realisation, funders such as Omni Bridgeway can turn an otherwise write-off-prone claim into a profitable workout.

The report also charts structural shifts reshaping the market: Beijing’s pressure on state banks to clean balance sheets, private-equity appetite for “special situations” paper, and widening acceptance of third-party funding in arbitration hubs from Hong Kong to Singapore. A series of recent matters—ranging from a Guangzhou lender’s successful freeze of UK real estate to a provincial AMC’s recovery of Latin-American mining assets—illustrate the potency of coordinated tracing, injunctive relief, and securitised claims sales.

For the legal-funding bar, the study underscores a powerful, still-underexploited pipeline: hundreds of billions of renminbi in distressed credit looking for capital-efficient enforcement solutions. Whether PRC banks will embrace external funders at scale—and how regulators will view foreign-backed recovery campaigns—remain pivotal questions for 2025 and beyond.

Omni Bridgeway Hails U.S. Budget Bill Win

By John Freund |

Omni Bridgeway has sidestepped a potentially painful tax after President Trump signed the FY-25 Budget Bill without the much-debated levy on legal-finance proceeds. The Australian-listed funder, which bankrolls commercial claims on six continents, had warned that the original 40.8 percent surcharge floated in the Senate Finance Committee would depress case economics and chill cross-border capital flows. Instead, the final bill landed on 4 July with zero mention of legal-finance taxation, handing the industry a regulatory reprieve just as U.S. portfolio commitments hit record highs.

Sharecafe notes that Omni Bridgeway credits a rare coalition of plaintiff-side bar groups, access-to-justice NGOs, and chambers-of-commerce allies for persuading lawmakers to drop the proposal. The company says it will elaborate in its 4Q25 report later this month, but stresses that bipartisan recognition of funding’s public-interest role now mirrors supportive reviews in Australia, the EU and the UK.

For funders, the episode underscores two diverging trends: rising U.S. political scrutiny and an equally vocal defense of the asset class from sophisticated investors. Expect lobbying budgets to climb as Congress circles disclosure and tax issues again in 2026, but also expect money to keep flowing—Omni’s stance suggests confidence that regulatory headwinds can be managed without derailing growth.

Cleary Gottlieb Highlights Importance of CJC’s ‘Light-Touch’ Statute for Funders

By John Freund |

Britain’s Civil Justice Council has recommended sweeping but flexible regulation to stabilise a litigation-funding market rattled by last year’s PACCAR ruling. In a 58-point report, the CJC calls for legislation clarifying that third-party funding deals are not damages-based agreements, erasing the decision’s retroactive cloud over billions in commitments. It favours statutory oversight—potentially by the FCA after a five-year review—covering capital adequacy, anti-money-laundering checks and early disclosure of funding sources, while rejecting hard caps on funder returns.

Cleary Gottlieb highlights the CJC’s view that funding is “an essential means to secure effective access to justice,” particularly for group claims, but concedes defendants need better cost-recovery tools. Notably, the report proposes court discretion to shift funders’ fees onto losing defendants in “exceptional circumstances,” a nod to fairness without endorsing U.S.-style cost-shifting.

If adopted, the blueprint could make London the first G-7 jurisdiction with bespoke statutory rules for funders—offering clarity that may attract capital flight from the EU post-PACCARR—but it also sets a precedent others may copy. Watch for Westminster to kick off consultations after Parliament’s summer recess; timing will be critical as cross-border class actions surge.